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Black Swan event

Black Swan: A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict. Black swan events are typically random and. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist - a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after the first European. Ein Black Swan Event kann enorme, positive oder negative, Auswirkungen auf die Finanzmärkte, Börsen und Anlageportfolios haben. Es handelt sich um Ereignisse, die von Zeit zu Zeit auftreten, unvorhersehbar sind und oft mit wenig oder gar keiner Warnung einhergehen. In diesem Beitrag werden wir einige bemerkenswerte Black Swan Events diskutieren, die in der Geschichte stattgefunden haben. Sie. More recently, a black swan event has become a common way to describe certain unforeseen downturns in the financial realm, especially when referring to the housing market crash of 2008. Some people have also referred to the COVID-19 pandemic as a black swan event, although Taleb argues that this is not actually the case Konzerte, Events sind Ereignisse mit Begegnungen Wir von Blackswan-Events, mit Sitz im Schwäbischen, bringen solche Begegnungen auf den Weg

Black Swan Definition - Investopedi

  1. Viele Experten sprechen im Zusammenhang mit der COVID-19 Pandemie von einem sogenannten Black-Swan-Event. Laut des Risikoanalysten und Bestseller-Autors Nassim Taleb, welcher diesen Begriff.
  2. Ein Black Swan Event kann enorme, positive oder negative, Auswirkungen auf die Finanzmärkte, Börsen und Anlageportfolios haben. Es handelt sich um Ereignisse, die von Zeit zu Zeit auftreten.
  3. der - aufgeklärten Welt ist ein Black-Swan-Event ein Ereignis, welches nicht vorhersehbar ist, das alle Beteiligten (auch die Beobachter und somit.
  4. What are Black Swan Events? In this article, we provide examples of black swan events as they relate to the financial industry. The financial markets Financial Markets Financial markets, from the name itself, are a type of marketplace that provides an avenue for the sale and purchase of assets such as bonds, stocks, foreign exchange, and derivatives. . Often, they are called by different names.

Black swan theory - Wikipedi

On this basis, I classify black swans in two categories: pure black swan events (e.g. 9/11) and temporary black swan events which we could have predicted if we leveraged our available information and/or if we had a more advanced technology to analyse them. In order to explain my view better, I will go back to the COVID-19 outbreak mentioned earlier on. While no one could have predicted the. A Black Swan event is an event in human history that was unprecedented and unexpected at the point in time it occurred. However, after evaluating the surrounding context, domain experts (and in some cases even laymen) can usually conclude: it was bound to happen. Even though some parameters may differ (such as the event's time, location, or specific type), it is likely that similar. After many years of existence as a fur coat, the Karakul foetus sustains its second Black Swan Event, which is far more improbable and even rarer than the first, namely, Markowitsch's decision to transform the fur coat, i.e. to revert this object of culture back to its natural state -- almost. markowitsch.org . markowitsch.org. Mit der Entscheidung Markowitschs, den Pelzmantel einer. Since the black swan metaphor was coined in the 2007 book of the same name it has become fashionable to label virtually all low probability/high impact events black swans.. But the danger of. His best-selling 2007 book about unpredictable events, The Black Swan, seemed eerily prescient of the terrible downturn starting later that year. More than that, it gave investors and academics a.

Twin Harbors Birds: Black Swan (Cygnus atratus) | The

What qualifies and doesn't qualify as a black swan event. What qualifies. Today, the term morphed into a new modern definition, coined by Lebanese mathematician, scholar, and writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb.First in his 2001 book, Fooled by Randomness, then expanded in 2007's The Black Swan.In fact, Taleb defines a black swan event as one that's Der Schwarze Schwan: Die Macht höchst unwahrscheinlicher Ereignisse ist ein 2007 erschienenes Buch des Publizisten und ehemaligen Optionshändlers Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Das Werk konzentriert sich auf die extremen Auswirkungen seltener und unvorhersehbarer Ausreißerereignisse (die er Black swan nannte) - und auf die Tendenz des Menschen, nachträglich vereinfachende Erklärungen für. dict.cc | Übersetzungen für 'black swan event' im Englisch-Deutsch-Wörterbuch, mit echten Sprachaufnahmen, Illustrationen, Beugungsformen,. As of 10:45 AM EST, Feb. 16, there were approximately 4.5 million outages in Texas. Still, many questions linger. Bloomberg reported that power plants weren't fully weatherized, wiping out generation capacity. The ones that were still standing struggled to get enough fuel, with shale wells experiencing so-called freeze-offs

Black Swan Event - Unvorhersehbare Ereignisse die

Black Swan Event Examples in History (and Why the Pandemic

Condition for a Black Swan Event For an event to be classified as a black swan event, it must be ex ante computationally inaccessible. Now, that isn't to say that we can't build models that generate useful predictions about the effects of climate change on water scarcity. Rather, what it implies is that those models will have to be based on probabilities, not tangible causal links. Black swan events are highly improbable, difficult to predict incidents that end up having drastic consequences. These events have such magnitude that they can bring down economies, societies and people. The man who coined the black swan theory, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, said there were three key ingredients that contributed to such an event: it is so rare that no one could have even anticipated. What are Black Swans? The theory of Black Swan events was developed to categorize non-predictable, high-impact events. Nassim Nicholas Taleb first suggested the term in 2001 in his book, 'Fooled by Randomness'. In 2007, he expanded on the concept in his better-known book, 'The Black Swan'. According to Taleb, a Black Swan event has three attributes: First, it is an outlier, as it lies.

Blackswan-Event

  1. In 2007, statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb defined Black Swan as an event that is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations. Black Swans by that definition are.
  2. As the COVID-19 spreads throughout the world, its cascading and multiple impacts deepen. As a result, fear spreads. Meanwhile, finance and business firms now started promoting the idea that the COVID-19 epidemic was a black swan event. For example, Goldman Sachs, in its Top of Mind, issue 86 (February 28, 2020) featured an article titled Continue reading Why the COVID-19 is NOT a.
  3. A black swan event is not necessarily a meteor strike or a volcanic eruption that disrupts everything equally. It can be localized, and one market's black swan may be another's golden goose. For instance, a widespread failure in the cryptocurrency sector would necessarily open up room in other technological and financial sectors. The failure in question is only a black swan relative to.

Black Swan is a term coined by Lebanese author and former NYU professor Nassim Taleb to describe an event with extreme impact that defies regular expectations, but that is, in hindsight, rationalised as predictable rather than an outlier. When the onset of COVID-19 took most of the world by surprise early in 2020, many were quick to label it as the Black Swan of the decade Positive Black Swan events are those unpredictable, highly impactful events where the upside of the event is unlimited while the downside is capped. According to Nassim Taleb, all Black Swan events have these three things in common: The event is unpredictable (to the observer). The event has widesp A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Taleb continues by recognizing what he terms the problem - Lack of knowledge when it comes to rare events with serious consequences. The above. Black swans are extremely rare events, often with large negative consequences. A black swan event cannot be predicted beforehand, but may seem obvious in hindsight When a research area goes viral, the event typically occurs in conjunction with a major change in conventional wisdom. In retrospect, the literature often contains earlier hints that the original judgment was not correct. These antecedents are referred to as Black Swan events. The picture shows research on homogeneous gold.

Black Swan Event?: Die Wahrscheinlichkeit des

Since the black swan metaphor was coined in the 2007 book of the same name it has become fashionable to label virtually all low probability/high impact events black swans Maybe black swans don't really exist. If there was ever a black swan event, it would be the COVID-19 pandemic. Taleb (2007) has described how an unexpected event can wipe out all our plans and. Black Swan events in projects According to Taleb (2007), a Black Swan event is an unpredictable event that defies prediction. It’s an event that can kill an organization if not managed properly.The following is a list of some common characteristics of many of the Black Swan events that have occurred (Green, 2011): 1. Emergency response and a solution to the scenario are totally. When Covid-19 pandemic engulfed the globe, Nassim Nicholas Taleb's 2007 bestseller 'Black Swan' was back in the headlines. The crisis was dubbed, well, a Black Swan event, for the sheer unpredictability with which the world found itself blindsided by the virus —the origins of which hitherto remain the subject of great speculation and intense geopolitical finger-pointing Black Swan Events in Human Resources. August 29, 2020. July 6, 2020 by Luke. A black swan is an event that comes as a surprise; nobody expects it, and it changes the environment surrounding us. It disrupts businesses, organization, and significantly shifts our values. It touches everything - people, organizations, companies, and governments

Ein Black Swan Event - Cyber Poligon 2021 der Restart der

  1. antly downward, implying that unexpected population crashes occur.
  2. Wie man ein Black Swan Event tauscht. Wie bereits erwähnt, sind Black Swans unvorhersehbar. Wenn sie passieren, überraschen sie uns oft und haben große Auswirkungen. Da diese Ereignisse jedoch immer Realität sein werden, finden Sie hier einige Tipps für den Handel während eines negativen Black Swan-Ereignisses. Eine der besten Möglichkeiten, Ihre Anlagen zu schützen, wenn ein negativer.
  3. This is a true black swan event in Arizona politics, a rare, one-of-a-kind one-off from everything normal in Arizona politics, which itself is really not normal, Mr. Barnes said. We are.
  4. Black Swan Events aren't just unpredictable in character; they're also unprecedented in scale. The 2008 financial crisis caught everyone by surprise not because mortgage defaults or bad credit ratings were that unusual, but because the magnitude of the event broke through all expectations and safety valves. Something happens at a scale that no one considered possible before, and with.
  5. Understanding what are Black Swan Events in Stock Market: European explorers would have been more than taken aback when they first encountered the first black swan in the 17th century during their conquest in Australia. After all, if you're habituated on seeing white swans all your life and suddenly a swan of black colour appears, you might also be astonished
  6. A black swan is an extremely unpredictable and rare event with severe consequences. It can cause catastrophic damage to the economy by negatively impacting markets and investment, but even the use of the most robust modelling cannot prevent a black swan. The term was hyped by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a writer, and former Wall Street trader

Black-Swan-Event: Übernahmeangebot löst Kursturbo aus

  1. Black Swan Events, Portland, Oregon. 445 likes · 2 talking about this. Specializing in breath taking fusion, and multicultural weddings. bring us your story, your passion and your talent. Together..
  2. ing how much of the Airbus A380 was still functioning. Then the issue was maintaining control of the crippled aircraft flying on the edge of a stall during approach with marginal aileron control effectiveness. Finally there was the problem of sitting over.
  3. Preparation for Black Swan events, to the extent that it is even possible, has to be balanced against the demands for short-term results. It may be a fruitless effort. But in the case of the current pandemic, doubts were expressed by readers of this column about whether it even qualifies as a Black Swan. Let's turn to some of the responses. We are not dealing here with a Black Swan.
  4. This pattern is common. Just because you haven't seen a black swan, doesn't mean that there are no black swans. Unlikely events seem impossible when they lie in the unknown or in the future.
BLACK SWAN + MATHEMATICAL CERTAINTY = GE&FS MELTDOWN

A black swan event is metaphorically used to explain an event that occurs unexpectedly. Even the observers tend to miss the potential signs. By the time a black swan event occurs, it is too late to realize. Some of the famous examples of black swan events include the 2008 U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis and the currency inflation that hit the Pacific countries in 1998 Black Swan events are not foreseen from observed data and are about unknown unknowns, where absence of likelihood information makes risk management methods futile, since in this world, even knowledge is of no use because experts do not really know what they do not know. Black Swans are not the same as low-probability, high-consequence events because they are unpredictable by probabilistic. Events. White Swan Charity. Find Us. Join Us. Careers. Live jobs. White Swan; LET'S TALK; Events. View Our On-Demand Webinars . Learn from CPG industry experts and our insights professionals by viewing our on-demand webinars. VIEW EVENT #8902 #8379. The Quirk's Event. London, United Kingdom. 11-12 February 2020. The annual European event by well established Quirk's Marketing Research. Because black swan events have generally not happened previously, they are hard to plan for. Nevertheless, some people believe that, in hindsight, the event could have been foreseen and expected. [1] The coronavirus pandemic of 2020 is a good example of a black swan event. Other such events include the 2001 terrorist attacks in the U.S., the 2008 global financial crisis, and the U.K.'s vote in.

Tundra Swans Arrive in the Central Valley in Winter

Examples Taleb gives of black swan events include the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. He underscores the point that the black swan event depends upon the observer. The Thanksgiving turkey sees his demise as a black swan, but the butcher. Black swans are highly improbable, make a significant impact, and are explainable after the fact. Prof. Nassim Taleb popularized the term in his 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. The 2008 subprime mortgage crisis is a good example of a black swan event The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb.The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.. The book covers subjects relating to knowledge, aesthetics. Avoid a negative black swan event by keeping an open mind. Also, consider this quote from the Captain of a very famous ship: But in all my experience, I have never been in any accident. . . of any sort worth speaking about. I have seen but one vessel in distress in all my years at sea. I never saw a wreck and never have been wrecked nor was I ever in any predicament that threatened to end. Since black swan event are surprises they cannot happen twice because once they have occurred they are within know experience. actuaries.org. actuaries.org. ブラックスワンが一 度現れると、既に経験されたことになり、 不測の出来事であるブラッ クスワンは二度起こることはあり得ないことになる。 actuaries.org. actuaries.org. Black Swan.

Maximizing Your Wedding Budget. Tips on Building Your Dream Team. Real Weddings Blog. Services. Ignite your imagination. Embrace your authenticity. Celebrate your story. Amazing starts here! Black Swan Events The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of. A black swan event is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Its widely accepted that black swan events have three factors: Their extreme rarity, Their severe impact, and; The widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight. They were originally defined by financial trader Nassim Taleb in his book The Black.

Was ist ein „Schwarzer Schwan in der Wirtschaft

Continue reading. reported strong earnings on Thursday, but its chief executive warned the novel coronavirus is a black swan event that is hurting the company's performance and might. Black swan events, which are defined as rare and unexpected events with severe consequences, have come and gone throughout history. In today's Markets in a Minute chart from New York Life Investments, we explore the sell-off size and recovery length for some of these events. Wars, Viruses, and Excessive Valuations . With sell-offs ranging from -5% to -50%, black swan events have all impacted. For an event to qualify as a Black Swan, it must fulfill the following: 1 - It's an outlier. Nothing that has happened before can convincingly point to even the possibility of the event. 2 - It carries an extreme impact. 3 - It becomes explainable only after the fact. Human nature fools us into believing that we should have been able to know it would happen all along. Other examples of. The Black Swan is the second volume of his 4-volume body of work on uncertainty, called Incerto. Antifragile is the fourth. First of all, this has nothing to do with the (in my opinion good) movie Black Swan. This book is about statistics, probability, and how we often falsely use those to estimate the likelihood of real-life events Black swan events are capable of causing catastrophic damage to an economy. The fact that one cannot easily predict them is especially alarming. As such, all we can really do is prepare for them by way of constructing strong systems. However, reliance on standard forecasting tools can often backfire. It can fail to predict, as well as potentially increase vulnerability to black swans by.

His best-selling 2007 book about unpredictable events, The Black Swan, seemed eerily prescient of the terrible downturn starting later that year. More than that, it gave investors and academics a. Why the term Black Swan is used so often in risk management because the risk managers feel the need to separately call out extreme impact events, regardless of probability and they pose an existential threat to a firm.. Black Swan Definition The most common definition of a Black Swan is: an event in which the probability of occurrence is low, but the impact is high

Because black swan frankly has gotten thrown around a lot lately, to refer to, basically, any dramatic event. Which is not the point of a black swan. Normal, mathematical, statistical analysis like standard math says extreme stuff happens from time to time. That's normal probability theory. If I keep flipping the coin over and over again at some point I'm going to flip heads ten times in a row. Companies which have been struck by Black Swan events often struggle because they have a difficult time making good decisions as the event unfolds . Even the most prepared and well-run organizations can find themselves in this situation . To understand why, one needs to first understand what it feels like to operate in a Black Swan and how decision-making becomes much more complex in that. Utter the term black swan in financial circles and it will conjure images of an economic catastrophe triggered by a rare event people should have seen coming, if only they had opened their eyes

These events could be a corporate meeting, a trade show, conference, sports or music event, or even a wedding, Bar Mitzvah, or social gathering. Each of these event categories and experiences is exposed to significant potential Black or Gray Swan events that could affect positively or negatively the way that they do business. This year, I. Black swan events are improbable and, hence, not predictable from past knowledge or events and have high proportional impact. Human nature being what it is, makes us find reasons for the event afterwards that makes it appear predictable when in fact it can never was or could be. Any of the major disasters on oilrigs, including the recent event in the Mexican Gulf, are of this ilk. Reports of. Stealthbits Predicts 2021 to be the Year of the Black Swan Event. Company cites outsourcing, privacy regulations and more targeted ransomware attacks as other challenges facing security teams in. black swan eventの意味や使い方 名詞black swan event (複数形 black swan events)(economics) the impact of a highly improbable occurrence o... - 約1174万語ある英和辞典・和英辞典。発音・イディオムも分かる英語辞書 Teori Peristiwa Angsa Hitam / Black Swan Event Theory merujuk pada peristiwa langka yang berdampak besar, sulit diprediksi dan di luar perkiraan biasa. Pandemi COVID-19 yang menyebabkan kejatuhan bursa saham dan obligasi (yang belakangan naik lagi), stimulus terbesar dalam sejarah dunia, serta aturan physical distancing, dan berbagai perubahan lainnya sudah pasti bisa dikategorikan peristiwa.

Examples of Black Swan Events - Overview, How To Classif

To determine how a black swan event could stress a company, the team needs to understand the foundation on which the status quo rests. 2. Creating the disrupter list. The key to creating a list of potential black swan events is to cast a wide net by catag possible catastrophic environmental, economic, political, societal, and technological events. The team should add much more to the list. A black swan event is a catastrophe that may or may not happen, but if it does, its precise avenue and the timing of its occurrence will have been nearly impossible to predict beforehand.. In the cryptoeconomy, black swans have been increasingly discussed around the Ethereum community as the project's decentralized finance arena, or DeFi, has boomed in popularity over the last two years

Black Swan Theory: What is a Black Swan Event? IG E

A black swan is an unpredictable, rare, but nevertheless high-impact event. The concept is easily demonstrated and well known but naming these events as black swans was popularised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name, which was described in The Sunday Times as one of the 12 most influential books since the Second World War Die Black Swan Theory ist seit der Veröffentlichung des libanesisch-amerikanischen Autors und ehemaligen Aktienhändlers Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 2007 in aller Munde. Ein Black Swan ist ein Ereignis, dass nicht vorhersehbar ist und alle Beteiligten unerwartet trifft. Im Nachhinein lassen sich Black Swans zwar erklären, aber vor ihrem Auftreten waren die Indizien nicht erkennbar

Black Swan Theory: What is a Black Swan Event? IG U

A black swan event must have following three attributes: The event is extremely difficult to predict (at least to the observer) The event carries a major impact. After the event has occurred, people will try to make it explainable and predictable (hindsight bias) Black swan events might include the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, Global. Instead, it was hit with a Black Swan, an event that completely upends the pattern of the past. (It's worth noting that the problem of inductive reasoning is the problem of Black Swans: Black Swans are possible because we lend too much weight to past experience.) This is a version of the black swan fallacy. Another example of faulty inductive reasoning, this time from the world of finance. The Black Swan MKE is an award-winning venue collection located in the heart of the Historic Third Ward in Milwaukee, Wisconsin A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Taleb continues by recognizing what he terms the problem: Lack of knowledge when it comes to rare events with serious consequences. Why is.

Black Swan events are typically random and are unexpected. While the concept of a Black Swan event applies to financial risk, increasingly it is also being used in the domain of to refer to unexpected events with a low probability of occurrence, but with severe impacts when they occur. The impacts of Black Swan events on operations is amplified by global supply chains. For example, a natural. Black Swan events were popularized by the writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book, The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable (Penguin, 2008). He said that the world is severely affected by events that are rare and difficult to predict. This affects markets and investments. During these events, people develop a psychological bias and collective blindness to rational behavior. The. Black Swan Events are unexpected incidents that exceed expectations and often have quite serious consequences. They are typically rare occurrences, but if 2020 has taught us anything, that's not always the case. Another key characteristic of Black Swan events is that observers always point out the factors and red flags that could have warned people or made the event predictable. These are. Classic black swan events include the 9/11 attacks, or events such as floods, droughts and epidemics. Take the Tsunami in Japan and the subsequent nuclear power plant accidents that followed. It can turn swing trading on it's head. As a result, knowing how to protect your portfolio from black swan events is a good thing. Check out our trading service for more information. We Are Blind.

Some Black Swan events may cause bear markets that give traders a great opportunity to buy stocks that are in a free fall. While this represents tremendous opportunities to make money, it is not always good to on a stock-buying spree as you could end up losing everything if the market crashes. It also makes sense to take your money out of the stock market if you think there is a higher chance. In recent weeks, headlines about COVID-19 have been full of so-called experts describing the pandemic as a black swan, a metaphor for an extremely rare event that is unforeseen and has an. 1-Page Summary 1-Page Book Summary of The Black Swan Fast Summary of Shortform's Guide to The Black Swan. The Black Swan is the second book in former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb's five-volume series on uncertainty. This book analyzes so-called Black Swans—extremely unpredictable events that have massive impacts on human society

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Coronavirus is the black swan of 2020. Some of you (and some of us) have already been personally impacted by the virus. We know the stress you are under and are here to help. With lives at risk. The Three Attributes of a Black Swan Event. In his 2010 book The Black Swan, Taleb describes three attributes of a Black Swan event: First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us. Englisch-Deutsch-Übersetzungen für black swan event im Online-Wörterbuch dict.cc (Deutschwörterbuch) Black swan events are cataclysmic events that completely unpredictable and unpreventable, and grave consequences due to how the event takes the world by surprise. The coronavirus is potentially one of those black swan events. This is what they would call a Black Swan event. — Michael Arrington (@arrington) March 3, 2020. The coronavirus in just a few short months went from an unusual, yet.

9 Black Swan Events that changed the Financial World

An event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict The term black swan event describes surprises of an especially momentous and nasty type. Popularized by the mathematician Nicholas Nassim Taleb in his 2007 book of the same title, Taleb argued that black swan events have three characteristics: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. In recent years, the concept of black swan events has. The consequences of black swan events are troublesome for analysts because the events themselves are extremely difficult to predict, they cause ripple effects elsewhere in a system, and they leave a legacy that must be accounted for when future observations are made of those systems. Since these events, by their definition, lie outside the realm of regular expectations, it's not only. In the end you are playing a game of luck (having the highest delta when a black swan event happen, the higher average delta the luckier you may get). The way I thought about this strategy is as.

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